Jewish beliefs on life after death and Jewish Funerals Essay

Describe the Jewish beliefs about what happens to evil people after death. Death as a general concept is a very difficult concept to come to grips with; it is one of the very few events that occur in modern life where we do not have primary sources to inform us. The torah talks about â€Å"Every Jew having a portion in the world to come†. So we have already established that even the most evil person amongst our ranks will live beside us in the world to come. The problem in the above paragraph which is talked about a lot in Jewish teachings and literature is weather the evil people will live beside us or weather just like a class divide on the trains in England’s past they will be mere peasants in the back carriages. All sources at hand concur that for those possessed with good that have devoted their lives to mitzvoth the after life will only bring pleasure and the most desirable dreams. Back to the original question the problem and arguments occur when talking about evil people. During torah times we were told of a place designed for these sinners referred to as â€Å"Sheol†. When comparing this ideology to the idea of â€Å"Hell† believed by followers of the Christian belief, it was agreed that this is not the case and in fact Judaism does not believe in Hell. – Which is believed to be a mans worst nightmare and often depicted as a fiery underworld. The most well known description of Sheol is a place where the soul is made to stand naked, with no shelter to hide and to have to explain and come to terms with all the sins it has committed. AO2 – Explain how a Jewish funeral service might comfort someone whose close friend has died. The most visually explicit seen which would comfort a friend is the first part of a Jewish funeral, in Hebrew called the leveya translated into the accompaniment. This brings respect to the body and shows the onlookers including the friend how much this body is being respected in its current state and therefore how much it was loved. The (Chevra Kadisha) The most holy people, are the ones responsible for caring for the body after its death and before it is returned to the dust it was made from. It would make anybody feel comforted knowing that their loved was in the hands of these very people, they perform their tasks with the utmost respect. A Eulogy is delivered after the burial; this reminds the friend of the accomplishments that the man has achieved and that his time on the Earth will be remembered. During the second part of the funeral, a hole is dug and the body is put in, the mourner is made to cover the grave himself, this stimulates the mourners body physically and emotionally, and combined the realisation process will begin and he will start understanding that his friend is no longer with us in this world. After he has buried his friend he is in a period of mourning. During this crucial period of a Jewish death, he has certain mitzvoth he must observe, these include not shaving and not preparing your own food. Even non – Jewish therapists have agreed that this method is very good and helps an individual to accept the passing away in a gradual process. Kadish is a prayer said by a mourner and is important because it is said to elevate the soul of the relative and also allows the mourner to feel as if he is still helping even as his relative lies in his coffin. All of these tasks are specifically designed to help the mourner to understand this natural process and to help respect the dead. AO3 – â€Å"It cannot be true that there is life after death because there is no evidence for it. As afore mentioned it is difficult to find proof of the afterlife because we do not have primary sources to agree or disagree with its existence. The torah does specifically mention the afterlife in the form of â€Å"Sheol† and for Jews which follow the torah, this is the most textual proof they need in order to believe this. Just like most of the Jewish religion, Belief plays a huge part, and to believe in the after life is to have beliefs about Jewish ideology. The Mishna and the Gemara, Jewish book of learning do bring textual proof of their being an afterlife. In my opinion the after life does exist, because I am a believer of Jewish principles which tell you that your good deeds will be rewarded and your bad ones deducted from you, I can only believe that my actions in this world, will all be linked to the world to come and I shall receive my just deserves.

“Burro Genius” by Victor Villaseñor Essay

Victor Villasenor is, certainly, one of the most famous and beloved authors who has presented his raw and unexpected memoirs to public opinion. Actually, the book explores Victor’s transformation from embarrassed and intimidated young boy into the famous writers of the present world. Thus, his memoir â€Å"Burro Genius† describes difficult life of poor Mexican American boy having been always faced with constant discrimination in his local school system. Villasenor vividly presents struggle between him and teachers and emphasizes the role of parents and God for overcoming all difficulties. Special attention is devoted to spiritual connections with god. It is necessary to say that Villasenor describes his masterpiece as real miracle. (Villasenor 2004) Villasenor says when he stood at the podium facing a group of teachers, who always harassed and discriminated him; he became really furious and enraged with such unfairness. Despite the fact that the boy had never spoken to the public, Victor’s mind was filled with doleful and sorrowful childhood recollections associated with constant misunderstanding, humiliation and power abuse. Victor’s heart was thumbing, though he started his impressive speech about all the incidents taken place during his entering local school. It is mentioned in the book that some listeners couldn’t help but shedding tears. (Villasenor 2004) This is a mournful beginning of Villasenor’s memoirs. The author appears highly talented and imaginative playing with words and sense. For example, he vividly amplifies how he has coped with untreated learning disability meaning that he has diagnosed as dyslexia. Furthermore, the book provides impressive descriptions of frustrations of his life as a Latino boy. He says that American school system has failed to comprehend cultural understanding and has failed to deal properly with Hispanic students. (Villasenor 2004) The author admits that he is born and raised on San Diego County and thus he devotes certain part of the narration to description of several surrounding cities: streets where cattle and domestic animals are seen; dusty roads adapted for horse-riding. Nevertheless, still he remains away from his childhood memoirs not to disturb the picture of quiet life. His memoirs are developing with essay progression; they are filled with lifted spirit of a child, with fears and terrors of classmates and teachers. However, special role is devoted to illustrating racism being able to chill anyone. (Villasenor 2004) Victor says he was often slapped by instructors and kicked by classmates only because of being Mexican guy. Moreover, the boy was considered the stupidest child in the class. Apparently, the author raises important themes not only for his time, but also for present world, because the problem of cultural discrimination and racism touches not only the USA, but the rest of the world. Nowadays many foreign students are suffering from hostile attitudes of native students. Therefore, the author sensitively describes all his hardships, privations and difficulties at school. (Villasenor 2004) It is impossible to remind indifferent when the author describes his rage and says he even â€Å"contemplated killing some of his teachers and classmates with a firearm†. Such statement seems to be used ironically and his infuriating energy has now changed. It is necessary to suggest that Villasenor is one of the first to raise the problem of cultural discrimination so openly and bold. Actually, teachers in both public and private schools, according to the author, practiced violent abuse and brainwashing tactics to intimidate and to discriminate foreign students. (Villasenor 2004) The boy was often treated as â€Å"dirty† Mexican being ugly and unworthy as well. Certainly, boy’s psychological development was upset and the boy has distorted perception of reality. Victor realized that all those characteristics were referred to his family members as well. For example, teachers said his mother was ugly, his father was loud and dirty. As it is mentioned above the boy was often beaten, because his English was poor. Therefore, Victor was forced to be really ashamed of his nationality and heritage. Furthermore, his cultural values and tight-knit family were questioned. Victor’s growing frustration fueled his desire to become a writer and to reveal the truth about racial discrimination in public schools. (Villasenor 2004) Nevertheless, the positive moment of the book is descriptions of constant family love and support, especially the role of father and brother in Victor’s life. The author mentions that it is his father who helped him to eliminate false notions and to move forth. The struggle with Mexican culture is seen throughout the whole book and the boy seems to be proud of his family, whereas he is ashamed of being Mexican. Apparently, Victor considered brown skin as crime. (Villasenor 2004) Communicative bonds with nature and Gods are amplified after death of Victor’s older brother. For example, the boy sees trees, stars and moon as a magical encounter existing between humans and nature. Further, he begins to believe in the supernatural and his intuition is strong. Therefore, it is the main reason why the child’s imagination overwhelms book’s narration. From the very beginning Victor considered himself as a spiritual person being devoted to religion and God. He describes Navajo as â€Å"like perspective on the natural cycle of life and being one with nature†. (Villasenor 2004) â€Å"Burro Genius† makes readers analyze and think of their own childhood, past and present. Furthermore, readers are forced to reflect how words are able to affects psychological development of a person. It is known that ruler- striking teachers don’t exist in the country, although author assumes that racism exists, though its forms had been changed: â€Å"Now teachers are more concerned with how to separate students so that they don’t taint the school’s test scoring system†. (Villasenor 2004) Apparent strength of the book is that the author strongly defends his positions regarding culture and religion. References Victor, Villasenor. (2004). Burro Genius. New York: Rayo.

Eating in class Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Eating in class - Essay Example Also, students should not be allowed to eat in class because other students can become distracted. Time spent in the classroom should be for learning, so if one student eats then it will likely get the attention of other students. These students then may start to feel hungry and will not focus on the lesson at hand. Finally, students should be prohibited from eating during class because it is just plain rude. In most cultures when someone is eating it is a nice thing to offer food to the other people. If a student eats in class alone, then they are causing the other students to become jealous. Since it is wrong to share food in class, it is also wrong for one person to eat during class. Eating during class can be a divisive issue because there is no denying that people need to eat. However, there is a time and place for this, and the classroom is not the place for that. Most people are against students eating during class because the food can smell bad, other students may lose focus of the lesson, and it is rude to eat in front of

Business Economic Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 4000 words

Business Economic - Essay Example At a general framework, countries measure growth by developments of its gross domestic product (GDP) and by the per capita real GDP (Colander, 2001). The secular growth rate trend of economy is 2.5 to 3.5% and the fluctuations experienced within this trend are called the business cycles that are either at its peak, through, upturn or downturn state (p. 154). Unemployment refers to number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of workforce. Unemployment, whether structural or cyclical, is most felt during economic recession and conversely felt when there are expansions (p. 154). Global Conditions The Internal Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed that recession caused sluggish recovery which morphed countries in an economic quagmire in the 90s to the mid-2000s although hope for growth is placed at European countries. Analysts professed that there is world economic expansion in an annual rate of 51/4% in early part of 2010 however, increasing unemployment remained challenging. There i s also an evident financial setback too, which caused markets instability that consequentially discouraged entry of more investments while there is evident decline of stocks in the market (p. 16). This prompted the European Central Bank’s Securities Markets Program and its European Stabilization Mechanism to initiate fiscal adjustments. IMF further observed that there is reduction of tail risk when Europe redefined their fiscal policies by undergoing adjustments against market demands. It was perceived that if the basic economic weaknesses persist and economic reform is turtle-paced, growth remains uncertain. Further observations denote that while there is increasing activities to improve tax measures, there is also low investments for real estate and slow residential demands amid increasing prices of houses. IMF professed that the quantitative risk is high as distribution of forecasts for the slope of the yield curve is tilted downwards and another upside risks from financia l forecasts toward the second quarter of 2011 (p 45). Macroeconomic Trends in UK As this develops, UK forecasted that its exports will aid growth in the next term. Financial analysts hope that identified downside risks will not happen; that there will be improvement in investment, employment and on consumption. In the last quarter of 2010, UK has employed labor force at 29.157 million based on a survey (HRM Guide, 2011) which resulted to a growth rate of 2.3% for earnings (HRM Guide, 2011) attributable to private sector. But UK’s unemployment rate as of March 2011 pegged at 8.0% and may increase steadily increase toward 2015. CIPD further report serious youth unemployment problem: there is an unemployed 1 person among 8 youths within the age bracket of 16-24 (HRM Guide, 2011). Further, UK officials reportedly spent ?43 billion on debt interest to reduce deficit to stabilize sustained economic growth (HM Treasury, 2010). In a separate development, international trading is seve rely affected with the natural disaster caused by quakes and tsunami affecting Japan which severely damaged properties and lives as well as caused major threat with the impending meltdown of its nuclear power plants. Elsewhere in major areas of the world, e.g.

The Case Backgruond Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

The Case Backgruond - Essay Example A large or small business organization’s survival and business growth generally depends upon the ability to successful implementation of organizational change process. The following part of the study will provide the definition of organizational change process. Moreover, the study will discuss why the multinational organization is trying to implement organizational change process in their business process. Organizational change can be defined as the process of change that has a significant impact on the business and organizational performance. Moreover, this change process has a significant effect on the employees and every organizational aspect (Malopinsky, 2007, p.244). There are several types of organizational change process. From these, two major categories have been discussed below (Stickler, 2011, p.38). The subsystem organizational change include removal or addition of a good or service, new process implementation, certain department’s reorganization in order to propose effective and quality product or services (Khedher, 2009, p.151). On the other hand, organizational wide change comprise of major collaboration, rightsizing and restructuring. Incremental change includes systematic improvement of quality management considering the operational process or applying new computer system in order to increase the efficiency. On the other hand, transformational organizational change includes structure or culture changing process of an organization, such as hierarchical structure, organization’s top-down structure and many more (Collns, 1998, p.71). Critical Review It is identical from the case study that, the multinational company was into a retailing business. It is very much justified that, being a multinational company, it tried to expand business as improved system. Moreover, it is identical from the case to focus on the customer development strategy in order to make a strong presence in the global competitive market. The organization is suffering from several problems such as, over capacity of production, lack of effective HR policies and marketing support, inadequate organizational structure, lack of flatter and virtual organizational hierarchy. In order to improve these organizational issues, the organization has decided to employ organizational change process. Effective organizational change process will help the organization to achieve their global business goals and objectives. Major objective and aim of the study is to offer an effective organizational change process strategy in order to overcome the problematic issues of the multinational company. This project will determine the critical analysis of challenges. Kurt Lewin’s organizational change process has been discussed in order to implement the change process in the multinational organization. An effective management and communication plan for the multinational organization can be formulated in the succeeding parts of this assignment. Critical Anal ysis It is identical from the case study that, the organization is suffering from several problems. First of all, the organization is suffering from the over production capacity problem. It is one of the major concerns of the organization. Over capacity of production generally addresses excessive production considering the required market demand. Moreover, the

Should General Electric Appliances Customer Relations use Total Research Paper

Should General Electric Appliances Customer Relations use Total Quality Management Instead of Six Sigma Management - Research Paper Example This definition implies that TQM focuses on continuous improvement by involving people at all levels and looks at all processes at organizational level. It does not focus on just one part of the organization but the entire organization as a whole. It involves integrating the technical systems of an organization with the social systems (Barnes and Pike, 1996). The idea is to achieve total customer, employee and stake holder satisfaction. It follows various principals for leading an organization to ensure continuous improvement. These include Involving employees at all level - This is because a TQM effort cannot be successful if it is propagated from the leadership team without the employees at executive level understanding its implications and working towards executing it. Focus on customer satisfaction Ownership at the lowest levels – Employees at the lowest levels need to take ownership of the TQM initiatives and work as self managed teams (Charantimath, 2003). Team work â₠¬â€œ Success of TQM initiative depends on how well the various teams can coordinate and collaborate with each other as well as within themselves. Competitive benchmarking helps in continuous improvement. Thus, it is vital for a company to measure itself against the best performers of the industry in which it is operating. Company culture is an important element of TQM. Hence, the culture should be developed to instill the quality way of working in all employees (Murray, n. d). TQM uses various tools and models to achieve continuous improvement. Some of the quality improvement tools it uses are – check-sheets, histograms, Pareto charts, Control charts, scatter diagrams, process capability studies and so on (Charantimath, 2003). All these tools help the managers to find opportunities for improvement. Some of these tools are also used to monitor the performance of the process on a continuous basis so that any deviations from expected levels are detected and sorted at the earlies t. Such monitoring also helps managers to analyze the performance and find ways of improvement. Six Sigma Six Sigma approach came far later than the TQM concept. In fact, Six Sigma is an outcome of TQM but its focus area is slightly different. It focuses mainly of defect reduction by reducing variation within a process (Shiba and Walden, 2001). Any reduction in variation of a production or service related process leads to standardized output which means reduction in errors or defects. It provides project focus for people to work on. For this, it uses the DMAIC (Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control) approach to work on a task in a structured way. These are the various stages of a project and help the project leader and other stake holders focus on all aspects of a process which are relevant at the particular stage of a project. Six Sigma provides explicit tools for every stage of the project. Some of the tools are – histograms, fishbone diagrams, paretos, run charts, process control charts and so on. All these tools help the project team in analysis of the data at various stages of the project. Six Sigma verses TQM Just like TQM Six Sigma uses various tools to analyze process performance. It also requires top leadership support for successful implementation just like TQM. A cultural change is required to be brought about within the organization for both the approaches to work. Many of the tools used by

Design Issues in the System (Security) Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Design Issues in the System (Security) - Essay Example The usability and accessibility guidelines have to be followed to develop easy to use software system. It is vital to balance the usability and security among the various design objectives. As per the given case study, the new system implemented in the restaurant has several issues related to the system security and user interface design. It is pertinent to highlight and review these issues include but are not limited to the locking up of the system after receiving four incorrect either username or password, the system screen automatically gets locked after three minutes of remaining idle, the locked screen can only be opened by the particular / logged in cashier and if the cashier is not available the system is required rebooting to log in any other cashier. These highlighted issues are due to the bad designing of the software application that can be removed or resolved by redesigning the software application. The implemented software application has software design issues include: the system has a design flaw of locking up the system either by inserting incorrect password or leaving the system idle for some time; the system rebooting is a major software design flaw which wastes time as well as irritates the users. (Payne and Edwards, 2008). Design Issues Solution The design issues in the deployed software application can be determined by an analysis the design issues and planning the new software design or redesigning the existing software application. There are few guidelines need to be considered while redesigning the currently deployed software application to remove the above highlighted design issues. These guidelines include but are not limited to the locked system should have the capability to be logged in by just changing the username and password by any cashier, as currently the logged in cashier can only unlock the system. In this way, the manager would not be bothered every time the system is locked. Moreover, this design would remove the requiremen t of rebooting the system, as the system can be unlocked by any cashier after entering his / her correct login name and password. The software application’s security breach can be avoided by following another guideline for securing the software application by implementing security certificates for all the users (cashier / manager / administrator). Software Design Plan The tasks for redesigning the software implemented in the restaurant may include: the analysis of the existing software (highlighting key issues), redesigning of software application keeping in view the highlighted issues, building up a prototype, performing user testing, feedback from the user, prototype refinement and these tasks lead to the final product. The above mentioned tasks need to be performed by the team keeping in view that the existing software has to be modified to correct the design issues, the software should adopt new hardware, the interface of the software has to be upgraded, and overall impro ving the performance of the software application. The information observed / identified through the analysis of the existing software application should be properly utilized in the implement new software application or modifying the existing software application in such a way with increased security and highly usable software applied. The software testing and validation procedures need to be developed for testing of the software application with objectives to remove the existing design issues. Documentation is one of the key factors in the success of any software application development; therefore, it should be performed properly and document version should be maintained. After

Organisation management Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

Organisation management - Essay Example age because the enterprise cannot act quickly â€Å"on opportunities that arise in a fast-paced business landscape, nor is it able to make productive decisions about how to change in order to seize these opportunities† (Kotter 2011). It renders an organisation less competitive because the organization is burden with bureaucracy and non-cooperation. To be able to detect silos, managers must be quick to recognize its symptoms so that it can be stopped early. Once silos have grown to point of an â€Å"empire† in an organization, it would be extremely difficult to arrest them. The first telling sign is the existence of projects in other departments or divisions or even groups without management knowing them. It is like that some groups in the organization have a life of its own. Second is the management’s lack of touch with the organization. Silos are often a product of non communication from management. Lastly, when certain groups or departments are being left out be it with information or project, the defense mechanism of such groups or departments is to hoard information and services and thus, the creation of a silo. Silos are basically founded on distrust in an organization (Burdett nd). To tear down or remove silos in an organisation, Stone advised to reward cooperative behavior among employees. Encourage innovation which silos stunt and create a culture of collaboration. Responsibilities must also be clarified so that finding opportunities in cross functional initiatives would be easier (2004). This would reinforce and promote a culture of cooperation and trust in an organization which prevents silos. Conflicts, which silos thrive can also be prevented by clarifying responsibilities so that there is no overlap of functions that makes cooperation easy. Kotter also advised that departments in an organization share data so that none is left out and no one also can hostage the organization for possessing certain data. Cooperation must also be

Descriptive Writing Essay Example for Free

Descriptive Writing Essay The much publicized meteor shower has finally arrived and is a much anticipated awaited aesthetic show. As I’m observing the dark night sky waiting for the gorgeous meteors to enter Earth’s atmosphere, I see the sensational stunning spectacular sparkling stars. While sitting on my porch in the small town of Malton, I hear a small owl chirping on my backyard tree and the soothing summer breeze gusting throughout the trees. I can hear the constant chatter of my neighbours as they eagerly wait for the show to begin. This being my first meteor shower observation, I feel really happy and believe that this is going to be an amazing show that I wouldn’t miss for the world. The meteor shower is starting and I’m full of enjoyment, gazing at the sky, I see meteors enter Earth’s atmosphere at a tremendous rate, the beautiful sky is lit up with different colours; orange, blue and a bit of purple. The bright strands of light are appealing to the human eye. While meteors are falling every 10-20 seconds, they hardly make a sound. My family comes onto the porch gawking at the meteors, both them and I are watching in enjoyment. My dad brings out his camera and takes numerous pictures of the beautiful sight. The meteor shower finishes, my family goes inside gossiping about the show and how they won’t see it again, I on the other half stay outside and glance at the Big and Little Dipper. The stars start to vanish and I go inside to reminisce with my family and neighbours the next da y. In conclusion, this is a moment that will be cherished in my memories for a lengthy period of time and I will surely share these breathtaking sights with my children.

Adventures of Huckleberry Finn Essay Example for Free

Adventures of Huckleberry Finn Essay Ernest Hemingway probably summed it up best when he said, All modern American literature comes from one book by Mark Twain called Huckleberry Finn (source). We’re dealing with quite a book here. Published in 1885, Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, Twain’s follow-up to the Adventures of Tom Sawyer, carved new territory into the American literary landscape in several ways. As one of the first novels to use a specific region’s vernacular in its narration, the Adventures of Huckleberry Finn set a precedent for many other distinctly American works to follow. Some readers didn’t exactly get this new colloquial style, however. Accustomed to the proper prose of Hawthorne, Thoreau, and Emerson, some readers didn’t know what to do with Huck’s particular way of storytelling. Aside from the novel’s new style of writing, Twain’s decision to use thirteen-year-old Huck as the narrator allowed him to include certain content that a more civilized narrator probably would have left out. At first, Twain’s novel was labeled crass by some readers. The book was even banned in schools for its use of the n-word which is ironic, given that the novel is up in arms over slavery. Even today, the Adventures of Huckleberry Finn makes Banned Books lists. Look more:Â  social satire essay Twain’s novel jumped head first into one of the biggest issues of its day: racism. Although the Emancipation Proclamation had been signed over two decades before Huckleberry Finn’s original publication date, African-Americans everywhere were still victims of oppression and racism. They were technically free, but often by name only in Reconstruction-era America. Many southerners were bitter about the outcome of the Civil War. By guiding his characters through several states of the Confederacy, Twain was able to reveal the hypocrisy of many pre-war southern communities. As a southerner himself, Twain had first-hand experiences to draw on, and he was able to walk the fine line between realistic depiction and ironic farce. Not to mention, Twain created the now-iconic character of Jim, a runaway slave who convinces Huck that African-Americans are deserving of freedom, and that equality is a goal for which we all should be fighting. The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn is now considered to be one of the Great American Novels, mostly due to how it so heartily champions the American ideals of freedom, independence, and rugged individualism. Huck’s dedication to his own moral standards and his bold sense of adventure and self-sufficiency have earned him a place in the All-American Hall of Fame. In addition, Twain is a hilarious storyteller, and the plot of this novel is a roller-coaster ride of moral dilemmas – so trust us when we say that if you haven’t taken the ride yet, you probably should. Why Should I Care? Mark Twain wrote Adventures of Huckleberry Finn twenty years after the American Civil War. Slavery had been abolished, and the North and South were making up (albeit with some residual anger). So why publish a highly moralistic tale about a system that was no longer in place? Weren’t race issues a moot point once slavery was out of the picture? Hardly. Freedom didn’t mean equality by any means – not legally, socially, or practically. (See Shmoop Historys Jim Crow in America for more.) Actually, come to think of it, this isn’t an outdated notion at all. Rules and laws often don’t accurately reflect what’s really going on. From a legal standpoint today, we have equality of race; yet racism is still a problem. Men and women are equal, yet many still see a glass ceiling for women in the workplace, meaning they often have invisible boundaries to advancement. That doesn’t mean laws are useless. Laws may not immediately effect change, but we’ve seen that they do precede change. While laws can affect how people act, it takes more to change the way we think. We can’t rely on laws alone. That’s where The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn comes back into the picture. We need people like Mark Twain to remind us not to be self-congratulatory for starting a process in motion, but instead to realize that greater change is always necessary.

Jetstar Airline is an airline company that provides low cost flight

Jetstar Airline is an airline company that provides low cost flight Jetstar have their code of practice. They always want to be better and more informative relationship between their customers and insurers. They have improved their customer confidence towards their services. Each complaint they receive from a customer, they will find a way to resolve the problem by providing better services for their customers. They will keep their customer services standards as high as possible in order to get their customers coming back for it. Other than that, Jetstar has a cultural belief that they need to focus on providing their customers the lowest rate as possible so that more customers in the Asia Pacific region that takes their flight from Singapore and Australia. As a low cost carrier airline, they face a lot of challenges from their competitors especially their market in Australia, Singapore and in the other parts of the Asia Pacific but still they kept on fighting in the challenges they encountered. Due to the challenges, Jetstars income statements have been hard to remain constant. Jetstar needs to implement more strategies in order to stabilize their sales and get them increase higher. Their strategy of providing low cost fares to their customers really promotes themselves as one of the low cost airline leaders. Jetstar has had a unique way of selling that enables them to offer the cheapest fares compared to the other low cost airline in the industry. Marketing mix consists of the 7Ps which are Product, Price, Place, Promotion, People, Process and the Physical Evidence. By identifying these 7Ps it will be much easier for Jetstar to run and improve their business. Product The product that Jetstar Airline is selling is their flights destination. They offer their customers a destination that they could offer at a low cost. Price The prices they offer to their customers should be low and at a reasonable price. Since they are known as a low cost airline than they should do as what they say. Place The place where they sell their product is at the ticketing counter at an airport and also on their website which enables their customer to book and check their flight online. Promotion They always promote low prices when their customers book a flight in advance. They will give a very low price than the one they book on a near date. People The people are their target markets, who are their customers that favour to travel via airplane. They should focus on satisfying these people that have chosen to travel with their airline and they should try to attract others to chose their airline for travelling. Process The process they practice to sell their product is starting from checking their customers booking list and their flight availability to issuing the customers flight destination requests and checking in their luggage to their boarding time. Physical Evidence The only physical evidence that their customers have are their boarding pass. The boarding pass is a proof that the customer has purchase a flight destination with Jetstar Airlines. If there are any complaints to be made or an incident occurs on the flight they board, the boarding pass will be the proof that the customer is a passenger of Jetstar Airline. They have to know what to target and how to segment their market. Targeting and the segmentation of their market are important for them to enhance their business. Without focusing on these it will be hard for them to satisfy their customers. Jetstar target those who love to travel at low cost, and they have segmented their customers by knowing how to handle each customer differently and professionally. They have to really see the importance of targeting and segmentation. Understanding what their targeted customers needs and wants in the market helps them to provide better services for their customers. Segmentation will help them to spread their wings further and give them the opportunity to provide more flight destination to their customers. They should know where do travellers frequently travel to. At first their positioning strategy in the market was not really appealing to their target. They were not really perfect in some ways and that their fares were higher than the other low cost carriers that were operating in the Asia Pacific. In the Southeast Asia, their growths were held back by the regulatory environment of the region. Thus, Jetstar only gain losses from the start of their attempt to enter the Southeast Asia market. 3.0 Integration of Marketing Mix When the marketing mix are integrated, then only they can run their business smoothly because the already know what their products are, how much they are going to charge their fares, where they are going to sell it, what type of promotion are they going to offer to their customers, who are they going to sell it to, how are they going to process it and what type of evidence that the customer has purchase from them. This ensures them to Put the right product at the right place and at the right time. It might change based on the current changes of the market environment and economy. If there is a slight change in the economy such as an increase in the oil price, there will also be an increase in the fare price. A change in the environment will also affect their business, for example if there is a natural disaster or a war going on in a country that they frequently travel to; travellers would not want to travel to that certain country and their flight destination choice will be less. Their marketing mix must be able to adapt to certain changes that is occurring around them. 4.0 Target Market Segment In any business, they need to divide their market into smaller groups of customers that has a distinctive needs, characteristics, or behaviour that might need to be provided by a different product or marketing mixes; this is called market segmentation. (Armstrong G. Kotler P. 2003). Since Jetstar is a low cost carriage airline, they should turn their focus on the one segment that most of their customers prefer, even though they also offer a Star Class which gives much more comfort to the customer. They might have to improve on their services and their in-flight interior to make their customers feel comfortable at least when boarding their flight. Their in-flight services should really satisfy their customers by keeping them comfortable and providing them food and entertainment. When their customers are satisfied by what Jetstar has to offer them in their flights, surely they will suggest their other people to choose Jetstar for their travelling experiences. This way, they will be able to increase their sales. 5.0 Marketing Strategies Before building up a marketing strategy, they must look back into their marketing mix. They need to plan something that is out of the ordinary than the other low cost carriers. They can still offer a quite lavish service even though they are a low cost airline. They dont need to be the typical low cost airline where when a customer board it feels like they just boarded on a low cost bus but it does not have to be that way; customers have paid a fare that is much more expensive than taking a bus. Although, travelling by airplane is much more convenient and faster but it does not meant that customers should feel uncomfortable throughout their journey. Jetstar needs to be outstanding than the others in the industry if they want to be more profitable. They need to offer more flight destinations to their customers so that they have more choices of destination to choose from. They should also offer more departure time for their customers at least every 4 hours. By that it means Jetstar needs too buy more aircraft and hire more employees so that there could be more flights to more destinations; thus making it more profitable. In a short journey flight that is less than 3 hours, they should at least provide a complimentary drink from a choice of orange juice or carbonated drinks and not just by providing a water fountain and cups for the economy class  [2]  . Also they should provide some complimentary light snacks for the economy class customers such as peanuts or crackers. 6.0 Conclusion In order to conclude what has been written in this report, Jetstar should look into providing a service that is best for their customers. They should enhance every technology and services that they are practicing into a higher and upgraded level.

Isaacs Obsession with Money in Ivanhoe :: Ivanhoe Essays

Isaac's Obsession with Money in Ivanhoe       Sir Walter Scott's riveting classic, Ivanhoe, is a wonderfully woven story of battles, adventure, comedy, and love. In this story we encounter Robin Hood, Richard the Lion-Hearted, Prince John, and some less known but important characters. The reader meets Cedric the Saxon, who is guardian to the beautiful Rowena, and his swine herder Gurth along with his fool friend Wamba. In their adventures throughout the book they meet a feeble old man. He is a Jew. Rebecca is his beautiful daughter. Together they live in a fancy house of great wealth. For you see, Isaac is a very wealthy Jew, who is very much in love with his money.    We first learn of Isaac's love for money right after he is introduced. He arrives at the home of Cedric the Saxon, and sleeps in the room next to the Palmer. Awakened by the Palmer, who tells Isaac about a plan to take his life, they leave in the early morning and proceed to the city of Sheffield. When they arrive, Isaac thanks the Palmer and tells him that he cannot pay him much, but will give what little he has. The Palmer denies payment but Isaac insists on giving him a horse and bridle.    Isaac's love for his money is great enough that he would not pay even a little sum of money to someone who did him a favor. After the first day of the tournament, the Disinherited Knight has Gurth return the money they borrowed from Isaac. Gurth arrives at the house. Isaac asks how much money Gurth has in his money bag and demands all of it for payment. While Isaac is counting out the eighty zecchins, he almost gives one to Gurth for bringing the money, but can't find it in his heart to do so. Gurth leaves and on his way out Isaac's daughter gives Gurth eighty zecchins to give to his master and twenty for himself.    Isaac cannot bear parting with his money, even if it means dying for it. While being held captive in a castle, his captor asks for money in exchange for his freedom. Isaac cries out that he can get the money, but must go to his brothers from his tribe to borrow it! Why does he need to borrow money when he has so much?

the simpsons :: essays research papers fc

When Matt Groening and James L. Brooks created The Simpsons, a cartoon, family, they had no idea that it would become as big as it has now. There are many reasons the show has become very popular with the American public. Dumb and simple humor makes in enjoyable for people on all levels, and for the more sophisticated audience, there is some political satire in the show. It all started 1987, when Groening and Brooks created short cartoons for the Tracey Ullman show. If you were to compare these shorts to today’s show, there is a major difference in the quality of the show and the plots. This is due to better technology, more money, and a change in the things that can be said on television. (Groening) The show features five main characters. As stated by the show’s title, they are the Simpson family. The father, Homer, has had a very eventful life. Even though he is not very smart, he has led a life that is envied by many in Springfield. His job is the Nuclear Safety Inspector at the Springfield Power Plant. He has met presidents Gerry Ford, George Bush, and Bill Clinton, been an astronaut, and met bands such as the Who, the Smashing Pumpkins, U2, the Red Hot Chili Peppers, and REM, been a professional baseball mascot and numerous other jobs. His wife Marge has not led as an exciting life as Homer. She spends most of her time taking care of their three children, Bart, Lisa, and Maggie, and playing second fiddle in many of Homer’s adventures. Bart has become a 1990’s version of Dennis the Menace. He carries a slingshot in his back pocket and likes to cause havoc for his teachers and his father. Lisa is the brightest of the children. She has straight A’s i n the second grade, plays first chair saxophone, but is more like her mother, not getting involved in many adventures. Maggie is the baby and is mostly there to complete the family. (Holtz) The first full length episode was on December 17, 1989. This was the Christmas special entitled â€Å"Simpsons’ Roasting on an Open Fire.† The plot of this episode is that Bart gets a tattoo and Marge has to spend the family’s Christmas money getting it removed. She planned on having Homer’s Christmas bonus to buy presents with but he finds out that bonuses won’t be given out that year.

Economic Interdependence

Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations Author(s): Dale C. Copeland Source: International Security, Vol. 20, No. 4 (Spring, 1996), pp. 5-41 Published by: The MIT Press Stable URL: http://www. jstor. org/stable/2539041 Accessed: 12/10/2010 13:07 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www. jstor. org/page/info/about/policies/terms. jsp.JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www. jstor. org/action/showPublisher? publisherCode=mitpress.Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email  protected] org.The MIT Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to International Security. http://www. jstor. org Economic DaleC. Copeland Interdependence and War A Theory of Trade Expectations Does economic inter- dependence increase or decrease the probability of war among states? With the Cold War over, this question is taking on importance as trade levels between established powers such as the United States and Russia and emerging powers such as Japan, China, and Western Europe grow to new heights.In this article, I provide a new dynamic theory to help overcome some of the theoretical and empirical problems with current liberal and realist views on the question. The prolonged debate between realists and liberals on the causes of war has been largely a debate about the relative salience of different causal variables. Realists stress such factors as relative power, while liberals focus on the absence or presence of collective security regimes and the pervasiveness of democratic communities. Economic interdependence is the only factor that plays an important causal role in the thinking of both camps, and their perspectives are diametrically opposed. Liberals argue that economic interdependence lowers the likelihood of war by increasing the value of trading over the alternative of aggression: interdependent states would rather trade than invade. As long as high levels of Dale C. Copelands AssistantProfessorn the Department f Governmentnd ForeignAffairsat the i i o a University f Virginia. oFor their helpful comments on previous drafts of this article, I w ould like to thank Robert Art, V. Natasha Copeland, Michael Desch, Angela Doll, John Duffield, Matthew Evangelista, Richard Falkenrath, James Fearon, Joseph Grieco, Atsushi Ishida, Irving Lachow, Alastair lain Johnston, Andrew Kydd, Jack Levy, Lisa Martin, Michael Mastanduno, John Mearsheimer, Andrew Moravcsik, John Owen, Paul Papayoanou, Stephen Rhoads, Gideon Rose, Richard Rosecrance, Len Schoppa, Herman Schwartz, Randall Schweller, Jitsuo Tsuchiyama, David Waldner, and Stephen Walt.This article also benefited from presentations at the Program on International Politics, Economics, and Security at the University of Chicago; the University of Virginia Department of Government's faculty workshop; the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September 1995; the Olin security workshop at the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University; and the Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University (under whose auspices it was written). A ll errors remain mine. 1.For a summary of the causal variables in the two schools, see John J. Mearsheimer, â€Å"Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War,†InternationalSecurity, Vol. 15, No. 1 (Summer 1990), pp. 5-56; Robert 0. Keohane, â€Å"International Liberalism Reconsidered,† in John Dunn, ed. , The EconomicLimits to ModernPolitics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 165-194. InternationalSecurity, Vol. 20, No. 4 (Spring 1996), pp. 5-41 ? 1996 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 6 interdependence can be maintained, liberals assert, we have reason for optimism. Realists dismiss the liberal argument, arguing that high interdependence increases rather than decreases the probability of war. In anarchy, states must constantly worry about their security. Accordingly, interdependence-meaning mutual dependence and thus vulnerability-gives states an i ncentive to initiate war, if only to ensure continued access to necessary materials and goods.The unsatisfactory nature of both liberal and realist theories is shown by their difficulties in explaining the run-ups to the two World Wars. The period up to World War I exposes a glaring anomaly for liberal theory: the European powers had reached unprecedented levels of trade, yet that did not prevent them from going to war. Realists certainly have the correlation right-the war was preceded by high interdependence-but trade levels had been high for the previous thirty years; hence, even if interdependence was a necessary condition for the war, it was not sufficient.At first glance, the period from 1920 to 1940 seems to support liberalism over realism. In the 1920s, interdependence was high, and the world was essentially peaceful; in the 1930s, as entrenched protectionism caused interdependence to fall, international tension rose to the point of world war. Yet the two most aggressive stat es in the system during the 1930s, Germany and Japan, were also the most highly dependent despite their efforts towards autarchy, relying on other states, including other great powers, for critical raw materials.Realism thus seems correct in arguing that high dependence may lead to conflict, as states use war to ensure access to vital goods. Realism's problem with the interwar era, however, is that Germany and Japan had been even more dependent in the 1920s, yet they sought war only in the late 1930s when their dependence, although still significant, had fallen. The theory presented in this article-the theory of trade expectations-helps to resolve these problems.The theory starts by clarifying the notion of economic interdependence, fusing the liberal insight that the benefits of trade give states an incentive to avoid war with the realist view that the potential costs of being cut off can push states to war to secure vital goods. The total of the benefits and potential costs of tra de versus autarchy reveals the true level of dependence a state faces, for if trade is completely severed, the state not only loses the gains from trade but also suffers the costs of adjusting its economy to the new situation.Trade expectations theory introduces a new causal variable, the expectations of future trade, examining its impact on the overall expected value of the trading option if a state decides to forgo war. This supplements the static Economicnterdependence War| 7 and I consideration in liberalism and realism of the levels of interdependence at any point in time, with the importance of leaders' dynamic expectations into the future. Levels of interdependence and expectations of future trade, considered simultaneously, lead to new predictions.Interdependence can foster peace, as liberals argue, but this will only be so when states expect that trade levels will be high into the foreseeable future. If highly interdependent states expect that trade will be severely restric ted-that is, if their expectations for future trade are low-realists are likely to be right: the most highly dependent states will be the ones most likely to initiate war, for fear of losing the economic wealth that supports their long-term security. In short, high interdependence can be either peace-inducing or war-inducing, depending on the expectations of future trade.This dynamic perspective helps bridge the gaps within and between current approaches. Separating levels of interdependence from expectations of future trade indicates that states may be pushed into war even if current trade levels are high, if leaders have good reason to suspect that others will cut them off in the future. In such a situation, the expected value of trade will likely be negative, and hence the value of continued peace is also negative, making war an attractive alternative.This insight helps resolve the liberal problem with World War I: despite high trade levels in 1913-14, declining expectations for future trade pushed German leaders to attack, to ensure long-term access to markets and raw materials. Even when current trade is low or non-existent, positive expectations for future trade will produce a positive expected value for trade, and therefore an incentive for continued peace. This helps explain the two main periods of detente between the Cold War superpowers, from 1971 to 1973 and in the late 1980s: positive signs from U. S. eaders that trade would soon be significantly increased coaxed the Soviets into a more cooperative relationship, reducing the probability of war. But in situations of low trade where there is no prospect that high trade levels will be restored in the future, highly dependent states may be pushed into conflict. This was the German and Japanese dilemma before World War II. The article is divided into three sections. The first section reviews liberal and realist theories on the relationship between economic interdependence and the probability of war, and provides a critique of both theories.The second section lays out trade expectations theory The final section examines the diplomatic historical evidence for the new theory against two significant cases: Germany Internationalecurity20:4 | 8 S before World War I and Germany before World War II. The evidence indicates that the new variable, expectations of future trade, helps resolve the anomalies for current theories: in both cases, negative expectations for future trade, combined with high dependence, led leaders into total war out of fear for their long-term economic position and therefore security.TheLiberal nd RealistDebateon Economic nterdependence a I War and The core liberal position is straightforward. 2 Trade provides valuable benefits, or â€Å"gains from trade,† to any particular state. A dependent state should therefore seek to avoid war, since peaceful trading gives it all the benefits of close ties without any of the costs and risks of war. Trade pays more than w ar, so dependent states should prefer to trade not invade. This argument is often supported by the auxiliary proposition that modern technology greatly increases the costs and risks of aggression, making the trading option even more rational.The argument was first made popular in the 1850s by Richard Cobden, who asserted that free trade â€Å"unites† states, â€Å"making each equally anxious for the prosperity and happiness of both. â€Å"3 This view was restated in The GreatIllusion by Norman Angell just prior to World War I and again in 1933. Angell saw states having to choose between new ways of thinking, namely peaceful trade, and the â€Å"old method† of power politics. Even if war was once profitable, modernization now makes it impossible to â€Å"enrich† oneself through force; indeed, by destroying trading bonds, war is â€Å"commercially suicidal. 4 Why do wars nevertheless occur? While the start of World War I just after The GreatIllusion's initial p ublication might seem to refute his thesis, Angell in 2. Four other subsidiary liberal arguments, employing intervening variables, are not sufficiently compelling to discuss here. The first suggests that high trade levels promote domestic prosperity, thereby lessening the internal problems that push leaders into war. The second argues that interdependence helps to foster increased understanding between peoples, which reduces the misunderstandings that lead to war.The third asserts that trade alters the domestic structure of states, heightening the influence of groups with a vested interest in peaceful trade. The final argument contends that trade has the â€Å"spill-over† effect of increasing political ties between trading partners, thus improving the prospects for long-term cooperation. For an critical analysis of these views, see Dale Copeland, â€Å"Economic Interdependence and the Outbreak of War,†paper presented to University of Virginia Department of Government's faculty workshop, March 1995. 3. Richard Cobden, The Political Writings of Richard Cobden (London: T.Fischer Unwin, 1903), p. 225. 4. Norman Angell, The GreatIllusion, 2d ed. (New York: G. P Putnam's Sons, 1933), pp. 33, 59-60, 87-89. Economicnterdependence WarI 9 I and the 1933 edition argued that the debacle simply confirmed the unprofitability of modern wars. He thus upheld the common liberal view that wars, especially major wars, result from the misperceptions of leaders caught up in the outmoded belief that war still pays. Accordingly, his is â€Å"not a plea for the impossibility of war †¦ but for its futility,† since â€Å"our ignorance on this matter makes war not only possible, but extremely likely. 5 In short, if leaders fail to see how unprofitable war is compared to the benefits of trade, they may still erroneously choose the former. Richard Rosecrance provides the most extensive update of the CobdenAngell thesis to the nuclear era. States must choose betwe en being â€Å"trading states,† concerned with promoting wealth through commerce, and â€Å"territorial states,† obsessed with military expansion. Modern conditions push states towards a predominantly trading mode: wars are not only too costly, but with the peaceful trading option, â€Å"the benefits that one nation gains from trade can also be realized by others. When the system is highly interdependent, therefore, the â€Å"incentive to wage war is absent,† since â€Å"trading states recognize that they can do better through internal economic development sustained by a worldwide market for their goods and services than by trying to conquer and assimilate large tracts of land. â€Å"6 Rosecrance thus neatly summarizes the liberal view that high interdependence fosters peace by making trading more profitable than invading. 7 5. Ibid. , pp. 59-62, 256. i S a 6. RichardRosecrance,TheRise of the Trading tate:Commercend Conquestn the ModernWorld (New York: Basic Books, 1986), pp. 3-14; 24-25 (emphasis added); see also Rosecrance, â€Å"War, a Trade and Interdependence,† in James N. Rosenau and Hylke Tromp, eds. , Interdependence nd Conflict in WorldPolitics (Aldershot, U. K. : Avebury, 1989), pp. 48-57; Rosecrance, â€Å"A New Concert of Powers,† Foreign Affairs, Vol. 71, No. 2 (Spring 1992), pp. 64-82. 7. A book often seen as a statement on the peace-inducing effects of interdependence-Robert 0. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Power and Interdependence(Boston: Little, Brown, 1977)-actually contains no such causal argument. For Keohane and Nye, â€Å"complex interdependence† is more peaceful by definition: it is a valuable concept for analyzing the political process† only when military force is â€Å"unthinkable† (pp. 29, 24). In the second edition: â€Å"since we define complex interdependence in terms of [policy] goals and instruments,† arguments â€Å"about how goals and instruments are affected by th e degree to which a situation approximates complex interdependence or realism will be tautological. † Thus, â€Å"we are left essentially with two dependent variables: changes in agendas and changes in the roles of international organizations. † Keohane and Nye, Power and Interdependence, d ed. (Glenview, Ill. Scott, Foresman, 1989), p. 255; emphasis in original. 2 The dependent variable of this article-the likelihood of war-is nowhere to be found, which is not surprising, since it is assumed away. Other works on interdependence from the 1970s, which largely examined dependent variables other than war, are discussed in Copeland, â€Å"Economic Interdependence and the Outbreak of War. † InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 10 Realists turn the liberal argument on its head, arguing that economic interdependence not only fails to promote peace, but in fact heightens the likelihood of war. States concerned about security will dislike dependence, since it means that crucial i mported goods could be cut off during a crisis. This problem is particularly acute for imports like oil and raw materials; while they may be only a small percentage of the total import bill, without them most modern economies would collapse. Consequently, states dependent on others for vital goods have an increased incentive to go to war to assure themselves of continued access of supply. Neorealist Kenneth Waltz puts the argument as follows: actors within a domestic polity have little reason to fear the dependence that goes with specialization.The anarchic structure of international politics, however, makes states worry about their vulnerability, thus compelling them â€Å"to control what they depend on or to lessen the extent of their dependency. † For Waltz, it is this â€Å"simple thought† that explains, among other things, â€Å"their imperial thrusts to widen the scope of their control. â€Å"9 For John Mearsheimer, nations that â€Å"depend on others for crit ical economic supplies will fear cutoff or blackmail in time of crisis or war. † Consequently, â€Å"they may try to extend political control to the source of supply, giving rise to conflict with the source or with its other customers. Interdependence, therefore, â€Å"will probably lead to greater security competition. â€Å"10 8. One might contend that realists doubt the causal importance of economic interdependence, since relative gains concerns convince great powers to avoid becoming dependent in the first place. Aside from arguments showing why states may cooperate despite concerns for relative gains (see essays by Powell, Snidal, and Keohane in David A. Baldwin, ed. , Neorealismand Neoliberalism:The Contemporary ebate [New York: Columbia University Press, 1993]; Dale Copeland, â€Å"Why Relative DGains Concerns May Promote Economic Cooperation: A Realist Explanation for Great Power Interdependence,† presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies A ssociation, San Diego, April 1996), the argument is empirically false. Periods of high interdependence have arisen even when the security competition between great powers was particularly intense, such as from 1880 to 1914, as Waltz acknowledges. Kenneth Waltz, â€Å"The Myth of Interdependence,† in Ray Maghoori and Bennett Ramberg, Globalism versus Realism (Boulder, Colo. : Westview Press, 1982), p. 83.Since the reality of high interdependence cannot be argued or assumed away, I focus here on the core realist claim that whenever high levels of interdependence are reached, for whatever reason, war is more likely. 9. Kenneth Waltz, Theory of InternationalPolitics (New York: Random House, 1979), p. 106. 10. John J. Mearsheimer, â€Å"Disorder Restored,† in Graham Allison and Gregory F Treverton, eds. , Rethinking America's Security (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992), p. 223; Mearsheimer, â€Å"Back to the Future,† p. 45. See also Robert Gilpin, â€Å"Economic Interde pendence and National Security in Historical Perspective,† in Klaus Knorr and Frank N.Trager, eds. , Economic Issues and National Security (Lawrence, Kan. : Allen, 1977), p. 29. Adopting the realist argument, but emphasizing how dependence leads states to adopt destabilizing offensive strategies, is Anne Uchitel, â€Å"Interdepend- Economicnterdependence War| 11 and I This modern realist understanding of economic interdependence and war finds its roots in mercantilist writings dating from the seventeenth century Mercantilists saw states as locked in a competition for relative power and for the wealth that underpins that power. For mercantilists, imperial expansionthe acquisition of colonies-is driven by the state's need to secure greater control over sources of supply and markets for its goods, and to build relative power in the process. By allowing the metropole and the colonies to specialize in production and trade of complementary products (particularly manufactured goods for raw materials), while ensuring political control over the process, colonies â€Å"opened up the possibility of providing a system of supply within a self-contained empire. â€Å"‘2 In this, we see the underpinning for the neorealist view that interdependence leads to war.Mercantilist imperialism represents a reaction to a state's dependence; states reduce their fears of external specialization by increasing internal specialization within a now larger political realm. The imperial state as it expands thus acquires more and more of the characteristics of Waltz's domestic polity, with its hierarchy of specialized functions secure from the unpredictable policies of others. In sum, realists seek to emphasize one main point: political concerns driven by anarchy must be injected into the liberal calculus.Since states must be primarily concerned with security and therefore with control over resources and markets, one must discount the liberal optimism that great trading partners will always continue to be great trading partners simply because both states benefit absolutely. Accordingly, a state vulnerable to another's policies because of dependence will tend to use force to overcome that vulnerability. ence and Instability,† in Jack Snyder and Robert Jervis, eds. , Coping with Complexityin the International System (Boulder, Colo. : Westview Press, 1993), pp. 43-264. For Barry Buzan, since liberal free-trading systems are dependent on a hegemon which invariably declines, such systems are destined to fall into â€Å"malevolent† mercantilist practices, as states scramble to control access to goods formerly safeguarded by the hegemon. Avoiding the liberal system altogether, through a â€Å"benign† mercantilist system of self-sufficient trading blocs, will be therefore preferred. Buzan, â€Å"Economic Structure and International Security: The Limits of the Liberal Case,† International Organization, Vol. 8, No. 4 (Autumn 1984), esp. pp . 597, 609-623. For a similar argument, see Robert Gilpin, U. S. Power and the Multinational Corporation(New York: Basic Books), 1975, p. 259. 11. See Eli F Heckscher, Mercantilism, vol. 2, trans. Mendel Shapiro (London: George Allen, 1931), p. 15; Jacob Viner, â€Å"Power Versus Plenty as Objectives of Foreign Policy in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries,† World Politics, Vol. 1, No. 1 (October 1948), p. 10; David A. Baldwin, Economic Statecraft(Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1985), chap. . 12. Heckscher, Mercantilism, vol. 2, p. 40. InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 12 A COMPARISON OF THE LIBERAL AND REALIST PERSPECTIVES While the liberal and the realist arguments display critical differences, they possess one important similarity: the causal logic of both perspectives is founded on an individual state's decision-making process. That is, while the two camps freely use the term â€Å"interdependence,† both derive predictions from with their own specif ic how particular decision-making units-states-deal dependence.This allows both theories to handle situations of â€Å"asymmetric interdependence,† where one state in a dyad is more dependent than the other. Their predictions are internally consistent, but opposed: liberals argue that the more dependent state is less likely to initiate conflict, since it has more to lose from breaking economic ties;13 realists maintain that this state is more likely to initiate conflict, to escape its vulnerability. The main difference between liberals and realists has to do with their emphasis on the benefits versus the costs of interdependence.The realist argument highlights an aspect that is severely downplayed in the liberal argument, namely, consideration of the potential costs from the severing of a trading relationship. Most liberals, if pressed, would probably accept David Baldwin's conceptualization of dependence as the opportunity costs a state would experience should trade end. Yet Baldwin's opportunity costs are only the loss of the benefits from trade received after a state moves from autarchy. 14 It is this understanding of opportunity costs that is followed in the most comprehensive liberal argument for interdependence and peace, that of Rosecrance.There is little sense in Rosecrance's work that a state's decision to specialize and thus to restructure its economy radically can entail huge â€Å"costs of adjustment† should trade be later severed, nor that such costs can actually put the state in a far worse position than if it had never moved from autarchy in the first place. 15 This is the concern of realists when they talk about dependence on 13. See Keohane and Nye, â€Å"World Politics and the International Economic System,† in C. Fred Bergsten, ed. , The Future of the InternationalEconomicOrder (Lexington: D. C.Heath, 1973), pp. 121122; Neil R. Richardson and Charles W. Kegley, â€Å"Trade Dependence and Foreign Policy Compliance,† International Studies Quarterly,Vol. 24, No. 2 (June 1980), pp. 191-222. 14. David A. Baldwin, â€Å"Interdependence and Power: A Conceptual Analysis,† International Organization, Vol. 34, No. 4 (Autumn 1980), pp. 478, 482-484, 489; Baldwin, â€Å"The Power of Positive Sanctions,† WorldPolitics, Vol. 24, No. 1 (October 1971), pp. 19-38; Albert 0. Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade,exp. ed. (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980), chap. . 15. On the costs of adjustment, see Ruth Arad, Seev Hirsch, and Alfred Tovias, The Economicsof Peacemaking(New York: St. Martin's Press, 1983), pp. 26-34. Keohane and Nye examine the â€Å"costs of adjusting† as an integral part of â€Å"vulnerability† interdependence (Power and Interdependence, p. 13). Yet they do not establish the original autarchic position as a baseline for examining these costs independently from the benefits of trade forgone; this baseline is incorporated later i n EconomicInterdependence nd War | 13 a â€Å"vital goods† such as oil.A state that chooses not to buy oil from outsiders forgoes certain benefits of trade, but by operating on domestic energy sources, it avoids the heavy penalty experienced by a state that does base its industrial structure on imported oil, only to find itself cut off from supplies. That Rosecrance minimizes this realist concern is evident. In an explicit effort to refute Waltz's definition of interdependence as â€Å"a trading link which ‘is costly to break',† Rosecrance contends that â€Å"to measure interdependence in this way misses the essence of the concept. His subsequent discussion emphasizes only the benefits that states give up if they choose not to trade (his â€Å"opportunity costs†), and makes no mention of any potentially severe costs of adjustment. In fact, he argues that dependence on such things as foreign sources of energy is really no different than relying on outsider s for â€Å"fashions† or different makes of cars; if trade is cut off, a state loses only â€Å"consumer choice. † Recognition that the whole industrial structure of a state might be undermined or destroyed by an adversary's severing of vital trade is absent. 6 Rosecrance is reluctant to acknowledge realist concerns, perhaps because to do so would imply that dependent states might be more willing to go to war, as realists maintain, while Rosecrance is arguing that they are less willing to do so. 17 This points to a critical distinction between liberalism and realism that illuminates the liberal understanding of why wars ultimately occur. For liberals, interdependence does not have a downside that might push states into war, as realists contend. Rather, interdependence is seen to operate as a restraint on aggressive tendencies arising from the domestic or individual levels.If interdependence becomes low, this restraint is taken away, allowing the aggressive tendencies t o dominate. To borrow a metaphor from Plato: for liberals, inter- building the new theory. Liberals also consider â€Å"costs† in terms of losses in â€Å"autonomy† due to trade ties; see Richard N. Cooper, The Economicsof Interdependence New York:McGraw Hill, 1968), ( pp. 4-12; Rosecrance, Rise of the TradingState, pp. 39-41, 235. Note, however, that these are costs that go hand in hand with high trade, not costs that are experienced if trade is cut off.Hence, these losses in autonomy are more accurately considered as a form of sensitivity interdependencecosts incurred when trade is ongoing-rather than as a form of â€Å"vulnerability† interdependence so worrying to realists. On this, see Keohane and Nye, â€Å"International Interdependence and Integration,† in Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby, eds. , Handbook of Political Science, vol. 8 (Reading, Mass. : Addison-Wesley, 1975), pp. 368-370. 16. Rosecrance, Rise of the Trading State, pp. 144-145. In the appendix, an iterated prisoner's dilemma is used to show the â€Å"concrete benefits† from trade cooperation.If states decide not to cooperate, they simply â€Å"[do] not benefit†; pp. 233-236. 17. Rosecrance occasionally seems to accept that some goods are more vital than others, but even here he reiterates the liberal argument: â€Å"Countries dependent on the world economy for markets, assistance, and critical raw materials are doubly hesitant to embark on military adventures†; ibid. , p. 133, emphasis added. InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 14 dependence operates like the reins on the dark horse of inner passions; it provides a material incentive to stay at peace, even when there are internal predispositions towards aggression.Remove the reins, however, and these passions are free to roam as they will. 18 This point becomes clearer as one examines Rosecrance's explanations for the two World Wars. World War II, for Rosecrance, was ultimately domestically d riven. The main aggressors saw war as a means to cope with the upheavals flowing from â€Å"social discontent and chaos† and the â€Å"danger of left-wing revolutions†; given these upheavals, it is â€Å"not surprising that the territorial and military-political system [i. e. , war] emerged as an acceptable alternative to more than one state. Connecting the Second World War to causes arising from the unit level in the First World War,he continues: â€Å"If Germany, Italy, and Japan did not fulfill their territorial ambitions at the end of World War I, they might develop even more nationalistic and solidaristic regimes and try again. â€Å"19With trade and therefore interdependence at low levels in the 1930s, â€Å"economics offered no alternative possibility†; it failed to provide what he later refers to as a â€Å"mitigat[ing]† or â€Å"restraining† influence on unit-level motives for war. 0 World War I is a problematic case for Rosecrance, as it was for Angell, since the great powers went to war even though trade levels were still high. Like Angell, Rosecrance's main defense of liberalism is that leaders simply did not see how beneficial interdependence was, and how costly war would be. Due to outmoded ideas and unit-level pathologies, they misperceived the situation; hence, interdependence could not operate as it should, as a restraint on aggression. He talks about leaders' obsession with â€Å"nationalist ambitions† and â€Å"balance of power politics. He suggests that â€Å"no pre-1914 statesman or financier was fully aware of the damage that war would do to the European body economic† because of the irrational belief that â€Å"[war] would be over very 18. See Plato's Phaedrus in Phaedrus and Letters VII and VIII, trans. Walter Hamilton (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1973), sections 246-256. The historical roots of this view are explicated in f b i P Albert 0. Hirschman,The Passionsand the Interests: olitic alArgumentsor Capitalism efore ts Triumph(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977).He quotes Montesquieu (ibid. , p. 73): â€Å"It is fortunate for men to be in a situation in which, though their passions may prompt them to be wicked, they have nevertheless an interest in not being so. † 19. Rosecrance, Rise of the TradingState, pp. 102-103 (see also p. 111). Rosecrance does point out that Germany and Japan apparently went to war also to gain raw materials (ibid. , p. 108). He does not argue, however, that these two states were more dependent than other states for such materials; to have done so would suggest the validity of the realist logic. 0. See ibid. , pp. 106, 123, 150, 162. EconomicInterdependence nd War | 15 a quickly. â€Å"21At one point, he even seems to cast doubt on the efficacy of interdependence as a restraint on aggression: One should not place too much emphasis upon the existence of interdependence per se. European nations in 1913 relied upon the trade and investment that flowed between them; that did not prevent the political crisis which led to †¦ World War I. Interdependence only constrains national policy if leaders accept and agree to work within its limits. 22It thus appears that Rosecrance cannot really envision interdependence as being anything but a â€Å"constraint† or â€Å"restraint† on unit-level tendencies to aggress. This view is consistent with the general liberal perspective that all wars are ultimately driven by unit-level phenomena such as misperceptions, authoritarianism, ideology, and internal social conflict. Rosecrance's historical understanding of the World War II, for example, would fit nicely with the â€Å"democratic peace† literature: had all the states in 1939 been democratic, war would probably ot have occurred despite the disrupted global economic situation, but since some states were not democratic, their aggressive domestic forces became unfettered once interdependence had declined. The idea that economic factors by themselves can push states to aggress-an argument consistent with neorealism and the alternative theory I will present below-is outside the realm of liberal thought, since it would imply that purely systemic forces can be responsible for war, largely regardless of unit-level phenomena. 3 While liberal theory certainly downplays the realist concern for the potential costs of severed trade, it is also clear that realists slight the positive role the benefits of trade can have on a state's choice between peace and war. In the next section, I bring together the liberal emphasis on benefits with the realist emphasis on costs to create a framework for understanding the true level of dependence a state faces. This section also seeks to correct the most significant 21. See ibid. , pp. 18-19, 88, 96-97, 99, 150. 22. Ibid. , p. 141 (see also p. 150).The argument here borders on being non-falsifiable: disconfirming cases where war occurs despite hig h interdependence can be sidestepped by saying simply that states did not â€Å"accept† being peaceful traders. Note as well that if states have already decided to be peaceful, then interdependence is not needed as a restraint. 23. On liberalism's inherently unit-level orientation to conflict, see Andrew Moravcsik, â€Å"Liberalism and International Relations Theory,† Working Paper, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1992; Michael Howard, War and the LiberalConscience (New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press, 1978).On the democratic peace argument, see Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993). InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 16 error in both liberal and realist theories, namely, their lack of theoretical attention to the dynamics of state expectations for the future. o Trade r Invade? A Theory f Trade xpectations E o This section introduces the theory of trade expectations.This theory extends liberal and realist views regarding interdependence and war, by synthesizing their strengths while formulating a dynamic perspective on state decision-making that is at best only implicit in current approaches. The strength of liberalism lies in its consideration of how the benefits or gains from trade give states a material incentive to avoid war, even when they have unit-level predispositions to favor it. The strength of realism is its recognition that states may be vulnerable to the potential costs of being cut off from trade on which they depend for wealth and ultimately security.Current theories, however, lack a way to fuse the benefits of trade and the costs of severed trade into one theoretical framework. More significantly, these theories lack an understanding of how rational decision-makers incorporate the future trading environment into their choice between peace and war. Both liberalism and realism often refer to the future trading environment, particularly in empirical analyses. Bu t in constructing a theoretical logic, the two camps consider the future only within their own ideological presuppositions.Liberals, assuming that states seek to maximize absolute welfare, maintain that situations of high trade should continue into the foreseeable future as long as states are rational; such actors have no reason to forsake the benefits from trade, especially if defection from the trading arrangement will only lead to retaliation. 24 Given this presupposition, liberals can argue that interdependence-as reflected in high trade at any particular moment in time-will foster peace, given the benefits of trade over war.Realists, assuming states seek to maximize security, argue that concerns for relative power and autonomy will eventually push some states to sever trade ties (at least in the absence of a hegemon). Hence, realists can insist that interdependence, again manifest as high trade at any moment in time, drives dependent states to initiate war now to escape potenti al vulnerability later. For the purposes of forging strong theories, however, trading patterns cannot be simply assumed a priori to match the stipulations of either liberalism or of realism.Trade levels fluctuate significantly over time, both for the system as a 24. See Rosecrance, Rise of the TradingState, appendix. EconomicInterdependence nd War | 17 a whole and particularly between specific trading partners, as the last two centuries demonstrate. Accordingly, we need a theory that incorporates how a state's expectations of its trading environment-either optimistic or pessimistic-affect its decision-calculus for war or peace. This is where the new theory makes its most significant departure.Liberalism and realism are theories of â€Å"comparative statics,† drawing predictions from a snapshot of the level of interdependence at a single point in time. The new theory, on the other hand, is dynamic in its internal structure: it provides a new variable, the â€Å"expectations o f future trade,† that incorporates in the theoretical logic an actor's sense of the future trends and possibilities. 25 This variable is essential to any leader's determination not just of the immediate value of peace versus war at a particular moment in time, but of the overall expected value of peace and war over the foreseeable future.From consideration of the expectations-of-future-trade variable along with a state's level of dependence, one can derive a consistent deductive theory of state decision-making showing the conditions under which high interdependence will lead to peace or to war. High interdependence can be peace-inducing, as liberals maintain, as long as states expect future trade levels to be high in the future: positive expectations for future trade will lead dependent states to assign a high expected value to a continuation of peaceful trade, making war the less appealing option.If, however, a highly dependent state expects future trade to be low due to the policy decisions of the other side, then realists are likely to be correct: the state will attach a low or even negative expected value to continued peace without trade, making war an attractive alternative if its expected value is greater than peace. Moreover, since a negative expected value of trade implies a long-term decline in power, even if war is not profitable per se, it may be chosen as the lesser of two evils. 26 5. On the differences between comparative statics and dynamic analyses that incorporate the future, see Eugene Silberberg, The Structure of Economics, 2d ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1990), chaps. 1, 12, and 18. 26. That is, war is rational if it has either a higher net positive value or a lower net negative value. The theory thus works regardless of whether states are innately â€Å"greedy†-seeking positive gains from war-or simply security-seekers desiring to minimize long-term threats. See Charles L.Glaser, â€Å"Political Consequences of Military Strate gy: Expanding and Refining the Spiral and Deterrence Models,† WorldPolitics, Vol. 44, No. 4 (July 1992), pp. 497-538. By connecting the trading environment to fears about relative decline, I draw upon the notion that declining states launch preventive wars to uphold their waning security. Elsewhere, I build a solely power-driven theory showing why states faced with deep and inevitable decline initiate major wars. Dale Copeland, â€Å"Neorealism and the Myth of Bipolar Stability: Toward a New Dynamic Realist Theory of Major War,† Security Studies, Vol. , No. 3 (Spring 1996). S 2 International ecurity 0:4 | 18 The deductive logic of the alternative theory, as with liberalism and realism, centers on an individual state's efforts to manage its own situation of dependence. Consider a two-actor scenario, where one state â€Å"A† may trade with another state â€Å"B. † If state A moves away from the initial position of autarchy to begin trading, and trade is free and open, it will expect to receive the benefits of trade stressed by liberals, namely, the incremental increase in A's total welfare due to trade. 7 Note that a state can still be aware of the â€Å"benefits of trade† even if present trade is non-existent, since they represent the potential gains from trade that would accrue to the state should trade levels become high in the future. 28It is a state's ability to foresee future potential benefits that allows it to attach a high expected value to the peaceful trading option even when current trade levels are low (as long as it expects current restrictions to be relaxed). When a state trades, it specializes in and exports goods in which it enjoys a comparative advantage, while forgoing the production of other goods, which it then imports.This process of specialization, however, entails potentially large costs of adjustment if trade is subsequently cut off. This is especially so in the modern world if the state becomes dependen t on foreign oil and certain raw materials. With the economy's capital infrastructure (machines, factories, transportation systems, etc. ) geared to function only with such vital goods, a severing of trade would impose huge costs as the economy struggles to cope with the new no-trade situation. 29 In short, the severing of trade, as realists would argue, would put the state in a situation far worse than if it had never specialized in the first place.This analysis leads to a clearer understanding of any particular state's total level of â€Å"dependence. † On a bilateral basis, that level is represented by the sum of the benefits that the state would receive from free and open trade with another state (versus autarchy), and the costs to the state of being cut off from that trade after having specialized (versus autarchy). If state A started with an economy of 100 units of GNP before any trade with B (the autarchic position), and open trade with B would mean economic expansion to a level of 110 units of GNP on an ongoing basis, then the â€Å"benefits of trade† could be considered as 10 units.If the specialization that trade entails, however, would mean the 27. This is consistent with standard trade theory. See Richard E. Caves and Ronald W. Jones, World Tradeand Payments, 4th ed. (Boston: Little Brown, 1985), chaps. 3-4. 28. I thank Andrew Moravcsik for discussions on the potential benefits of trade. 29. The capital investments represent â€Å"sunk costs† not easily recouped. See Arad, Hirsch, and Tovias, The Economicsof Peacemaking,pp. 26-28. EconomicInterdependence nd War I 19 a conomy would fall to 85 units should B sever trade ties, then the â€Å"costs of severed trade† would be 15 units versus autarchy. State A's total dependence level would thus be the benefits of trade plus the costs of severed trade after specialization, or 25 units. The dependence level will itself be a function of such parameters as the overall compatibili ties of the two economies for trade, the degree of A's need for vital goods such as oil and raw materials, and the availability of alternative suppliers and markets.Thus if A's need for trade with B is great because the economies are highly compatible (say, in terms of mutual comparative advantages), B has valuable natural resources that A lacks, and A has few other countries to turn to, then A's dependence can be considered high. 30 In deciding between peace and war, however, a state can not refer simply to its dependence level. Rather, it must determine the overall expected value of trade and therefore the value of continued peace into the foreseeable future.The benefits of trade and the costs of severed trade on their own say nothing about this expected value. Dynamic expectations of future trade must be brought in. If the state has positive expectations that the other will maintain free and open trade over the long term, then the expected value of trade will be close to the valu e of the benefits of trade. On the other hand, if the state, after having specialized, comes to expect that trade will be severed by the trading partner, then the expected value of trade may be highly negative, that is, close to the value of the costs of severed trade.In essence, the expected value of trade may be anywhere between the two extremes, depending on a state's estimate of the expected probability of securing open trade, or of being cut off. 31 This leads to a crucial hypothesis. For any given expected value of war, we can predict that the lower the expectations of future trade, the lower the 30. On the importance of altematives, see Baldwin, â€Å"Interdependence and Power,† p. 482; Keohane and Nye, Power and Interdependence, . 13. It is worth remembering that alternative suppliers p nd markets are only valuable in reducing A's dependence if A can get access to them. If B is able not only to sever bilateral trade, but also to blockade A to prevent third-party tradi ng, then A effectively has no alternatives and is therefore dependent. This was the situation for Japan vis-a-vis the United States before 1941 regarding oil imports. 31. This line of reasoning is developed formally in Dale Copeland, â€Å"Modelling Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations,† paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September 1995.It is consistent with consideration of the â€Å"probability of transaction† as a determinant of expected national income in Arad, Hirsch, and Tovias, The Economicof Peacemaking,pp. 37-43, although they do not employ expectations of future trade as a theoretical variable affecting the likelihood of war. InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 20 expected value of trade, and therefore the more likely it is that war will be chosen. It is important to note that the expected value of trade will not be based on the level of trade at a particular moment in time, but u pon the stream of expected trade levels into the future.It really does not matter that trade is high today: if state A knows that B will cut all trade tomorrow and shows no signs of being willing to restore it later, the expected value of trade would be negative. Similarly, it does not matter if there is little or no trade at present: if state A is confident that B is committed to freer trade in the future, the expected value of trade would be positive. The fact that the expected value of trade can be negative even if present trade is high, due to low expectations for future trade, goes a long way towards resolving such manifest anomalies for liberal theory as German aggression in World War I.Despite high levels of trade up to 1914, German leaders had good reason to believe that the other great powers would undermine this trade into the future; hence, a war to secure control over raw materials and markets was required for the long-term security of the German nation. Since the expect ed value of trade can be positive even though present trade is low, due to high expectations for future trade, we can also understand such phenomena as the periods of detente in U. S. -Soviet relations during the Cold War (1971-73 and after 1985).While East-West trade was still relatively low during these times, the Soviet need for Western technology, combined with a growing belief that large increases in trade with the West would be forthcoming, gave the Soviets a high enough expected value of trade to convince them to be more accommodating in superpower relations. 32 In making the final decision between peace and war, however, a rational state will have to compare the expected value of trade to the expected value of going to war with the other state. The expected value of war, as a realist would emphasize, cannot be ascertained without considering the relative power balance.As one state moves from a position of relative inferiority in economic and military power to relative superi ority, the expected value of war will move from negative to positive or even highly positive. This proposition follows directly from the insights of deterrence theory: the larger the state in relative size, the higher the probability of winning a victory, while the lower the costs of fighting the war. 33 32. The U. S. -Soviet Cold War case is covered in Copeland, â€Å"Modelling Economic Interdependence and War. † 33. See Alexander L.George and Richard Smoke, Deterrencein AmericanForeign Policy: Theoryand Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974), chaps. 2-3. a EconomicInterdependence nd War | 21 Hence, if victory entails occupying the other state and absorbing its economy, war can take on a very positive expected value when a large power attacks a small state. 34 For example, if Iraq had been allowed to hold on to Kuwait after its August 1990 invasion, war for Iraq would certainly have â€Å"paid. † Similarly, Czechoslovakia was an easy and attractive targe t for Germany by 1938-39, as were the other smaller states of Europe, nd evidence suggests that war against these nations was indeed profitable for the Nazis. 35 On the other hand, war between more equal great powers is likely to have a much lower or even negative expected value. The Spartan leadership took Sparta into war against Athens in 431 BC, for example, under no illusions that war would be a profitable venture. 36 While the Athenian economy presented a large prize should victory be attained, war with a near-equal adversary could be expected to be very costly, with a low likelihood of victory.Where we would anticipate a low or negative expected value to the option of war, the expectations-of-future-trade variable should have a determinant effect on the likelihood of war. If state A has positive expectations for future trade with B, and A and B are roughly equal in relative power, then state A will assign a high expected value to continued peaceful trade, will compare this to the low or negative expected value for invasion, and will choose peace as the rational strategy.The higher A's dependence and the higher the expectations for future trade, the higher the expected value for peaceful trade, and therefore the more likely A is to avoid war. But if state A is dependent and has negative expectations for future trade with B, then the expected value of trade will be very low or negative. If the expected value for trade is lower than the expected value for invasion, war becomes the rational choice, and this is so even when the expected value of invasion is itself negative: war becomes the lesser of two evils. 7 34. This is developed formally in Copeland, â€Å"Modelling Economic Interdependence and War. † 35. See Peter Liberman, â€Å"Does Conquest Pay? The Exploitation of Occupied Industrial Economies† (Ph. D. diss. , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1991). 36. Thucydides, The Peloponnesian War,trans. Rex Warner (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1954), Book 1, lines 80-88. 37. When one state is very large and the other very small, it is harder to sort out the effects of interdependence from the effects of relative power, at least in actual cases of war.The expected value of war for the superior state is likely to be quite positive anyway, and thus will tend to overshadow the expected value of trade even when the state has positive expectations of future trade. Here, the superior state simply chooses war as the â€Å"greater of two goods. † This choice would not be altered by any diminution of trade expectations; indeed, war would simply be even more rational as the expected value of trade (and therefore peace) falls.War in such a situation of marked power imbalance and low expectations of future trade is thus overdetermined; it would be difficult to tell whether war occurred because of the positive expected value of war, the negative expected value of trade, or both. Thus, in my empirical analysis, I examine cases wh ere great powers InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 22 Until now, I have talked about state A's â€Å"expectations of future trade† as though they were an essentially exogenous, that is, as though state B, in its willingness to trade with A, were not affected by A's behavior.If, however, state A, by making political, military, or economic concessions, can induce B to relax trading restrictions, then A's low expectations for future trade may be raised. This suggests that the effects of diplomacy and bargaining need to be integrated into any extended historical analysis. 38 The probability of B trading with A is never completely independent of A's actions, since there is always some concession that A could make to get B to commit to higher trade levels over the long term.But the problem for A is that B's price for high trade may be unacceptable in that it undermines A's internal stability or its external power position. To take an extreme example, if B were to demand, as the price fo r higher trade, that A unilaterally disarm and allow B to occupy A with its army, it is hard to imagine A accepting such a deal. If B remains unwilling to budge from such an exorbitant demand, then it is fair to say that A's pessimistic expectation for future trade is exogenous; there is little A can do, short of national suicide, to improve the likelihood of trade.Thus state A, in estimating B's probability of trading with A, will refer to many indicators suggesting how â€Å"reasonable† B will be into the future, that is, how willing B will be to trade, and at what price. One may think of these indicators simply as causal factors affecting the variable â€Å"expectations of future trade. † Such systemic factors as B's economic competitiveness, B's rate of depletion of raw materials and energy reserves (affecting its future export ability), and military pressures constraining B's trade with A will be important.German leaders before World War I, for example, had good r eason to believe that Britain would be forced to move to imperial preference to protect its empire from the German economic challenge and to lend support to its entente partners. Japanese leaders in the late 1930s recognized that the United States would have to cut back on oil and iron exports to Japan as U. S. reserves were attacked great powers in long and costly total wars. While these cases do not cover the universe of wars, they do isolate the role of economic interdependence and changing expectations of future trade in the outbreak of war. 8. Given space constraints, my case studies in this article do not provide a full analysis of the bargaining dynamic. For an analysis of interstate economic bargaining, see Baldwin, Economic Statecraft,chap. 6; R. Harrison Wagner, â€Å"Economic Interdependence, Bargaining Power, and Political Influence,† InternationalOrganization,Vol. 42, No. 3 (Summer 1988), pp. 461-483. Note also that there may be a causal feedback loop, whereby in creasing fears of war lead others to reduce trade, which in turn heightens the incentive of dependent states to initiate war.These and other issues involving the endogeneity of trade expectations are addressed more fully in my book manuscript, â€Å"Economic Interdependence and War. † EconomicInterdependence nd War | 23 a depleted or needed to supply a military buildup (even one directed only at Germany). Such systemic pressures on B to reduce trade with A will foster negative expectations of future trade among A's leaders. But domestic and personal factors can also play a significant role in the exogenous rise or decline in B's likelihood of trading with A, indicating hat the assumption that B is a â€Å"unitary actor† must be relaxed to some degree when examining history. 39 In 1972, for example, the Soviets saw Nixon and Kissinger as firmly in control of American policy, and therefore able to carry through on commitments to increase East-West trade. Two years later, however, such a positive expectation for future trade could not be sustained in the wake of Watergate and the reassertion of Congressional power, at least at a price which was reasonable to the Soviets.This had much to do with the failure of detente, as I argue elsewhere. 40 A comparison of the arguments of trade expectations theory with those of liberal and realist theory is presented in Table 1. To summarize: liberals contend that high economic dependence, as manifest in high trade levels, reduces a state's likelihood of initiating war by providing a material â€Å"constraint† on unit-level forces for aggression. Low dependence will increase this likelihood, since this constraint on unit-level motives for war is removed.Realists argue that high dependence heightens the probability of war as dependent states struggle to reduce their vulnerability. In the realist world, however, low dependence should have no impact on the likelihood of war or peace; that is, other factors sh ould become causally determinant of war. Still, since economic interdependence is at least eliminated as a possible source of conflict, realists 39. Note that state A, the decision-making unit in the theory, can still be treated as a rational unitary actor respondingto the observed domestic forces on the other side. 0. See Copeland, â€Å"Modeling Economic Interdependence and War,†pp. 62-66. International trade institutions such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), by lowering transaction costs and facilitating the punishment of cheaters, may be an additional means to build positive expectations for future trade. Indeed, for some liberals, peace may only be likely when both interdependence and effective global institutions co-exist and reinforce one another; Keohane, â€Å"International Liberalism Reconsidered,† p. 183.While such institutions may indeed affect trade expectations, they are unlikely to be as significant in history as the systemic and dom estic factors just discussed, for the simple reason that these institutions are a creation of the post-World War II era. Moreover, since concerns for war and peace revolve mostly around the great powers, and powers like Soviet Union and China have been historically excluded from trade institutions like GATT, such institutions cannot account for fluctuations in the levels of tension between the United States and these powers since 1945.Finally, the institutional approach overlooks bilateraldiplomacy as the principal mechanism through which expectations of trade change; consider the United States and Japan up to December 1941, or the United States and Japan today. 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